What is the exit poll and how does it work?

00:00:00 on Election I the super geeks among us will want to stay up for every twist and turn every Portillo moment every subbing member and staff in party headquarters the less intrepid will probably chain it at 10 p.m. which is my mukha the exit poll which gives them an estimate of the number of seats won by each party in 2015 there was a wide expectation of a hung parliament but the exit poll predicted a conservative majority this exit vote is right Andrew I will publicly eat my hat on your program which turned out to be correct in 2017

00:00:46 many earlier polls had suggested and Tory majority but the exit poll indicated there will be a hung parliament with the Conservatives the largest party Allah also turned out to be correct so how does it work regular polls ask people how they intend to vote with the big difference with exit poll is it else people how they’ve actually voted interviewers from a couple of different polling companies hanging around outside a hundred and forty different polling stations across the country and the tempt are thousands

00:01:30 of people twenty thousand to be precise if they were mind disclosing at how they voted some more told the interviews to mind their own business others will kindly oblige because the interviews wherever possible it carried out in the same location each time it makes it possible to work out what the change in boat share for each party has been since the last election then using the demographic to be select in places the pollsters can work out how voters with certain characteristics are behaving and protect those

00:02:14 on two other constituencies to give the likely overall result it is just that it’s the likely result based on the data collected and in these scenarios a relatively minor error could be the difference between a majority and the hung parliament so while you can Sheen in for the big picture at 10:00 p.m. we won’t really know if that’s held up until around 4:00 or 5:00 in the morning

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1. 140, 2) 20,000, 3) to track changes since last elections, 4) 4:00–5:00 am………….

Interactive True/False Poll (Zoom or Mentimeter):

• Decide if statements are True (T) or False (F):

  1. Exit polls ask voters how they plan to vote before they enter polling stations. (F)

  2. The speaker suggests exit polls are usually accurate but can sometimes have minor errors. (T)

  3. Exit polls rely on demographic data to predict results in other constituencies. (T)

  4. The final election results are always clear immediately after the exit poll announcement. (F)